Convergent Semiconductors’ Observation of where we are today has not changed. Advanced die-stack solutions are in the mobile devices that dominate semiconductor expanded demand. System design is defining the low power-using, non-volatile memory as well as new processor solutions for the market-driving mobile consumer devices such as Smartphones, eBooks, and tablets. Other mobile products such as the notebook, netbook, digital camera/camcorder and other mobile devices continue to grow as part of the mobile segment.
Sales for the top-three mobile products exploded in 2010 over 2009 with an increase of 70%: Smartphone sales grew by 65%; eBook by over 350% and the tablet went from 0 to 18 million units. Remember that 2010 was not the most robust economic situation and the unit numbers are even more impressive.
Convergent Semiconductors shows that the new mobile products (Smartphones, eBooks and Tablets) were about one-fifth of the mobile product market in terms of units in 2010. By 2012 those products are expected to be a third and by 2015, half of the mobile products. This includes continued growth in established mobile products such as the notebook, standard cell phone, portable gaming and some yet unidentified new consumer products.
New Mobile Products Changing the Target Applications
Here is the previous article:
The New York Times had an interesting article last week that follows the theme of earlier blogs. The article (For Chip Makers, the Next Battle is in Smartphones) is here:
According to the author, the “chip wars” are entering a new phase as manufacturers fight to supply the silicon for one of the fastest-growing segments of computing: smart phones, tiny laptops and tablet-style devices. The author concludes that the new conflict is “about to become even more bloody” as the manufacturers and supporters of processor architectures choose sides. The turf being fought over is the architecture of mobile devices, and the argument that this is different from the previous processor battles is based on the observation that new components and technologies are targeting “smartphones and tablet‑like devices rather than mainstream computers.”
Will the memory manufacturers remain in a neutral support role as they were during the desktop PC era? I think not. This shift in the target application changes the value proposition of the associated memory technologies.
From the point of view of the memory world, the New York Times article doesn’t describe a “chip war” among processor manufacturers as much as a “platform war.” In this interpretation of the conflict, the forward edges of the battle lines are shaped by whether this highly anticipated mobile market segment favors a laptop computing platform or a cell phone communications platform. In the previous processor battles over desktop PCs, architectural participation by memory companies was largely restricted to competing on manufacturing costs based on a single widely supported standard memory interface. The difference this time is that the memory companies become much more influential in the definition of the performance of target mobile applications than in the desktop PC era. The memory characteristics of access time, nonvolatile data storage, and total power consumption begin to determine a bigger percentage of the total system value.
For example, the list of potential market entry points identified in the previous blog highlighted the possibility of nonvolatile STT-MRAM providing a “universal memory” solution. This memory architecture may have difficulty in gaining near-term acceptance in desktop PCs, but it could be ideal for laptops and tablet-style devices by reducing the power consumption, improving the overall performance, and providing instant-on capability.
Additionally, die-stacked technologies that are already commonly used by memory companies can also provide unique capabilities for high-end cell-phone platforms. Advanced die-stacked technologies can offer the wider selection of mix-and-match configurations necessary to support a cell phone end-user mentality that demands a much wider set of performance and cost options along with a much faster time-to-market for new features.
Let’s also not forget the company that is the largest memory manufacturer and the world’s second-largest semiconductor company also has a big stake in this platform battle. That company, Samsung, is also the second-largest supplier of cell phones and has already partnered with one of the primary processor suppliers.
According to the New York Times article, Jim Ballingall, vice president for marketing at GlobalFoundries, commented that, “This is a game changer.” I suspect memory companies—both old and new—will very strongly agree with that opinion.”
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